from: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0501mideast01.html

Mideast peace a gamble
'Road map' unveiled

Robin Wright
Los Angeles Times
May. 1, 2003 12:00 AM

WASHINGTON - The United States and its allies unveiled the long-awaited "road map" for Middle East peace Wednesday, the most detailed and widely backed plan yet to end the 55-year conflict between Israel and the Arabs.

But the partners face daunting obstacles to achieving the goal of creating a Palestinian state by 2005, according to U.S. officials, analysts and former mediators.

Three factors that have altered the political scene since peace efforts collapsed in September 2000 have spawned cautious hope that this plan may succeed where others have failed.

The swearing in this week of Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, has forced aside the recalcitrant Yasser Arafat. The Iraqi war forced out Saddam Hussein, Israel's nemesis and a supporter of Palestinian militants. And the war on terrorism has mobilized global opinion against extremism.

President Bush was upbeat Wednesday, despite the failure of past U.S. efforts to achieve a settlement.

Past failures don't "mean that we're not going to try," he told reporters.

"I'm an optimist, now that we have an interlocutor from the Palestinian Authority that has spoken clearly about the need to fight terror, that we have a good opportunity to advance the peace process. And I will seize that opportunity."

Bush also said the Iraqi war had signaled that forces supporting, funding or harboring terrorists will be held accountable.

"That, in itself, helps create the conditions to move peace forward," he said.

The plan, designed by the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia, also comes at a time of common cause between Israelis and Palestinians about ending the current "war process," according to Dennis Ross, chief U.S. mediator under the first Bush and Clinton administrations.

"What makes the road map possible is a convergence of interests in the near term. Abu Mazen has said there is no military solution to the Palestinian issue and that terrorism is destroying a just cause.

"And (Israeli Prime Minister) Ariel Sharon knows from an economic standpoint that he needs to bring the current struggle to a conclusion," added Ross, who is now director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

No guarantee

Yet a common desire to end the current violence does not guarantee movement forward on peace, Ross said.

It also offers an "illusion of specificity" with detailed requirements that still have to be translated into agreed actions.

In addition, the road map is vulnerable to many of the problems that have plagued earlier efforts, former officials and mediators say.

For starters, it is being imposed rather than coming out of negotiations between the parties.

"This is not a road map which either side has signed on to. It wasn't negotiated with them, and so the best it can do is serve as a guide," said Martin Indyk, former U.S. ambassador to Israel.

The White House has conceded that the road map's release offers no guarantees.

"Make no mistake: It will be hard work. There will be a lot of hand-holding required," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said Wednesday.

The process also relies heavily on Abbas. The new Palestinian leader faces the challenge of dealing with a spectrum of interests, ranging from a right-wing Israeli government to Islamic extremists determined not only to scuttle peace but to destroy Israel.

Unwillingness all around

Sharon's own Likud Party has voted against the peace process, while Arafat has already indicated his unwillingness to cede all major power to Abbas.

Meanwhile, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not prepared to relinquish armed struggle.

"The two suicide attacks in the last few days were not accidental. They were timed for this," Ross said. "And Israel will not pull out or ease controls if they see the possibility that it will only lead to a lot of dead Israelis."

Pre-empting a new cycle of violence may prove difficult, whatever Abbas' commitment. He is in a "weak position, with very limited security capabilities," said Indyk, now director of the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution.

Palestinian security forces are in disarray, and building a new force is at the core of reforms in the road map's first phase. This is expected to take time, thus endangering Abbas' ability to end the bloodshed and making the new Palestinian leadership and the road map susceptible to failure.

"If Abu Mazen fails, that's it. There's no other Abu Mazen, no moderate, credible leader. He represents the last chance," said Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher.

Key to translating the road map into tangible gains will be a strong U.S. role, analysts warn.

Bush told reporters Wednesday, "I look forward to spending time and energies to move the process forward."

Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected to launch talks during a trip to the region next week.

But the first Bush administration also tried its hand at Middle East peace after winning a decisive victory against Iraq, an effort that produced the Madrid conference that brought together Israel and the Arab states, but quickly bogged down.

Bush, like his father, faces the problem of timing, pursuing a renewed peace effort with elections around the corner for a second term.

"Does the U.S. have the stamina or will to do this now? Most people in the Middle East are skeptical because they know a U.S. election is coming," Muasher said.

Please visit these sites which document David Dorn a liar and hate monger who makes up viscous lies about people he doesn't like:

Dorn Agency
Dorn Agency
Dorn Insurance
Dorn Insurance
Dorn Insuranse
Dorn Insuranse
David Dorn Agency
David Dorn Agency
David Dorn Hate Monger
David Dorn Government Snitch?